Hurricane Simon puts $175m Mexico Pacific catastrophe bond on watch; Artemis says no trigger appears to have occurred

Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength off Mexico's Pacific coast, with sustained winds of 155 mph at 09:00 UTC on 11 October, and forecasters expected a landfall in Jalisco state, Artemis reported. By 00:00 UTC on 12 October Simon was at 125 mph with a minimum central pressure of 951mb, and later updates suggested it might skirt the coast instead of making a direct landfall.

The storm put the IBRD CAR Mexico 2024 (Pacific) bond on watch. This is a $175m single-tranche parametric catastrophe bond that covers named storms on Mexico's Pacific side. A payout depends on the minimum central pressure that official ATCF best-track data records inside defined boxes just off the coast, not on actual losses.

According to Artemis's sources, the first threshold is 937mb or lower. A central pressure of 932mb or lower may be needed for a 25% payout and 915mb or lower for 50%, with payments rising towards 100% at lower pressures. Artemis described these figures as unofficial.

In its latest update Artemis said that "it does now look like no trigger event occurred", while stressing that this is not an official determination. No official calculation had been published when the article was updated.