In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects contractions of 16.7% for Kuwait, 15.6% for Qatar and 11.3% for Bahrain this year, The National reported. It expects the UAE economy to shrink by 3.9% and Saudi Arabia's by 3.3%, while Oman is forecast to grow by 4.1%. The Middle East and North Africa is the only region the fund expects to contract in 2026.
The forecasts assume that the strait gradually reopens from March 2027 and that conditions return to pre-war levels by October 2027. On that basis, the IMF expects activity in Gulf oil exporters to rebound next year.
Globally, the fund kept its 2026 growth forecast at 3.1% but sees headline inflation rising to 4.7%. Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the economy's resilience is "reaching its limits". The report also noted that the 10-year US Treasury yield has recently traded at its highest level since 2002.
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The National — insurance ↗This is an original summary of the linked report, selected by Axxion’s GCC market monitor. Facts are attributed to the publication.