Risk & Catastrophe · In context

Background: Coface lowers Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar country risk grades on energy and Hormuz exposure

Background: in its October risk review, published on 13 October, trade credit insurer Coface downgraded Saudi Arabia from A3 to A4, the UAE from A2 to A3 and Qatar from A3 to A4. It expects economic activity to contract across the GCC in 2026. It also downgraded the agri-food sector in the UAE and Saudi Arabia because of their reliance on food imports.

insurewire.org editorial desk
AI-assisted brief · Source checkedPublished 24 Oct 2026, 21:53 GST · Source dated 13 Oct 2026
Included in the evening edition of 24 October 2026

Illustration of an oil tanker and a small freighter in a rocky sea passage, with grain sacks on a quay in the foreground. — Illustration. Not a photograph of the event.

In context: this report covers a source published on 13 Oct 2026.

Coface, the French trade credit insurer, lowered its country risk grades for three Gulf states in its October 2026 Risk Review, published on 13 October. Saudi Arabia moved from A3 to A4, the United Arab Emirates from A2 to A3 and Qatar from A3 to A4. These were the only three country downgrades in the review, which also had four upgrades.

Coface links the Saudi downgrade to the exposure of the country's energy infrastructure and most of its export routes to attack. For the UAE and Qatar, it cites their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. It expects economic activity to contract across Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2026.

The review also made 20 sector changes. Agri-food was downgraded in six countries. In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Coface says the weakness comes mainly from heavy reliance on food imports, not from problems with domestic production.

Globally, Coface estimates that the Middle East conflict will take 0.5 percentage points off growth in both 2026 and 2027. It keeps its forecast of 2.5% for 2026, after 2.8% in 2025, and 2.6% for 2027. Chief economist Jean-Christophe Caffet said the conflict is "reviving the risk of another global inflation shock". Asia Insurance Review reported the downgrades on 23 October.

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Coface ↗

Company · 13 Oct 2026

This is an original brief based on the linked publication. Company statements and forecasts are attributed to their source.

Middle East

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