Moody's RMS puts Hurricane Isaias insured losses at $2.5bn to $4.5bn, with a $3.5bn best estimate

Moody's RMS Event Response has put US private market insured losses from Hurricane Isaias at between $2.5bn and $4.5bn, with a best estimate of $3.5bn, Reinsurance News reported on 16 October. The estimate covers property damage and business interruption in residential, commercial, industrial, automobile and watercraft lines. It also includes post-event loss amplification.

Wind causes most of the loss. Moody's expects storm surge, rain-driven inland flooding and losses to the National Flood Insurance Program to add only about $250m in total. Isaias was the first hurricane of the 2026 North Atlantic season. It came ashore as a Category 2 storm near Destin, Florida, on 10 October, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Hurricane-force winds reached across the Florida Panhandle and inland to the Alabama border.

According to the report, Moody's said the storm strengthened quickly over unusually warm Gulf waters but weakened in wind shear before landfall. It expects the insured loss to be manageable for the market. The modeller also named two causes of higher claims costs: wide roof damage from falling trees, and possible full roof replacements under Florida's 25% roof rule.

The published estimates are not directly comparable, because they do not use the same scope. The Moody's figure includes wind, surge and flood across several lines of business. Karen Clark & Company puts private insured wind and surge losses at $3bn, and Verisk puts onshore property losses at $1bn to $2bn. Cotality's estimate is $2bn to $3bn. Gallagher Re has said that the event is unlikely to have an effect on the 1 January reinsurance renewals.