Gallagher Re expects Hurricane Isaias to have little effect on 1 January reinsurance renewals

Gallagher Re, the reinsurance broking arm of Arthur J. Gallagher, has updated its view of Hurricane Isaias after landfall, Reinsurance News reported on 15 October. In commentary dated 14 October, the broker said insured losses from wind, storm surge, inland flood and tornadoes should settle at the lower end of a low-to-mid single-digit billion US dollar range. That range includes the expected loss to the National Flood Insurance Program.

The broker gave three reasons why the storm is unlikely to influence 1 January renewals: the size of the expected loss; the track, which hit a less populated part of the western Florida Panhandle slightly east of Pensacola, with a small radius of maximum winds; and record levels of traditional and alternative capacity. Even a multi-billion-dollar loss would not materially change pricing, capacity or market sentiment heading into 2027, according to the report.

Isaias made landfall near Destin on 9 October as a weakening Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph, after peaking at Category 3. Gallagher Re recorded gusts of up to 117 mph at Oriole Beach, a storm surge of 5.57 feet at Panama City Beach, at least 21 confirmed tornadoes and nearly 900,000 customers without power at the peak. It expects the economic cost to run about 40% to 50% above the final insured loss.

The 2026 Atlantic season has been very quiet. By mid-October it had produced nine named storms and one hurricane, with accumulated cyclone energy of 18.0 against a 2016-2025 average of 130.6. Gallagher Re attributes this mainly to a strong El Niño. It says El Niño usually brings more winter rain to the central Gulf Coast, which raises the risk of flash flooding and severe convective storms in late winter and early spring.