RISK RADAR · THEME
Pandemics and infectious disease, antimicrobial resistance, GLP-1 and other drugs that move mortality or morbidity, longevity trends, mental health, medical cost inflation.
ARGUS’S READING Steady · Swiss Re's cancer outlook combines falling mortality with rising incidence; the net direction for life and health losses remains uncertain.
AI and technologyClimate and natureGeopolitics, conflict and tradeCyberEnergy and the transitionSocial and legalFinancial and macroHealth, pandemics and longevityNatural resources and foodUnder the radar
Insurance
Australian health fund HCF says mental health admissions account for 90% of its gold-tier claims, and its white paper warns that 1.2 million Australians could drop gold hospital cover within ten years without reform. HCF figures reported by Insurance Business show gold's share of hospital cover fell to 28% from 40% in 2019 as the average gold premium rose 71%.
NowBusiness model
Rising health premiums divert household savings, pressuring retirement and savings products sold by life insurers.
NowClaims and pricing
Rising life claims among workers in their 30s and 40s hint at earlier mortality trends for life underwriters.
NowClaims and pricing
Mental health claims rising sharply, led by younger workers, pressure group health and disability underwriting.
NowClaims and pricing
Mental health claims rising sharply, led by younger workers, pressure group health and disability underwriting.
NowClaims and pricing
Worker mental illness claims rising more than twice as fast as other injuries, pressuring workers' comp costs.
NowBusiness model
Large Medicare Advantage exits signal margin pressure that forces insurers to shrink government health business.
5–10 yrsClaims and pricing
Falling cancer mortality alongside rising incidence shifts long-term life and health claims and pricing assumptions.
NowClaims and pricing
Chronic disease and diabetes treatment uptake keep Chinese medical cost inflation above general inflation, pressuring health claims.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Rising GLP-1 drug use changes workers' comp cost drivers that claims teams must price and manage.
NowBusiness model
Rising insurance costs push employers toward individual health reimbursement arrangements, reshaping group health business.
NowClaims and pricing
Second sharp ACA premium rise signals medical cost inflation pressuring marketplace health cover.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Health premiums set for a large 2027 jump, signalling medical cost inflation for health insurers.
NowClaims and pricing
Soaring mental health claims are driving up top-tier private health premiums, a loss trend that strains health pricing.
