RISK RADAR · BUSINESS LINE
Strategic risks that hit credit, surety and political risk: trade credit, surety bonds, political risk, political violence and terrorism.
ARGUS’S READING Steady · French riots raise accumulation concerns; Coface's GCC country-risk downgrades are background from before this review period.
Property and catastropheCasualty and liabilityMotorMarine, aviation and transportEnergy, engineering and constructionCredit, surety and political riskCyberAgricultureLife, annuities and pensionsHealth and medicalWhole industry
Risk & Catastrophe · In context
Background: in its October risk review, published on 13 October, trade credit insurer Coface downgraded Saudi Arabia from A3 to A4, the UAE from A2 to A3 and Qatar from A3 to A4. It expects economic activity to contract across the GCC in 2026. It also downgraded the agri-food sector in the UAE and Saudi Arabia because of their reliance on food imports.
NowClaims and pricing
UK insolvency peak has passed, but structural pressure remains for trade credit exposures.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Senate passage of long-term TRIA reauthorization sustains the federal terrorism backstop that insurers rely on.
NowClaims and pricing
Shifting US tariffs on Canada keep trade credit exposures uncertain for insurers.
NowClaims and pricing
Gulf sovereign downgrades by a credit insurer signal tighter trade-credit underwriting on Saudi, UAE and Qatar exposures.
1–3 yrsCapital
A TRIA extension with a $10M trigger would shift more terrorism losses onto insurers, raising retained exposure.
1–3 yrsCapital
EU considering tighter rules on insurers writing unfunded SRTs for banks, affecting credit-risk capital demands.
NowClaims and pricing
Rising personal guarantee cover demand from construction firms signals credit stress in a cyclical sector.
NowClaims and pricing
French riot losses bring London market and insurers' civil-unrest exposure into focus.
NowClaims and pricing
Riot losses are behaving like a catastrophe peril, with correlated claims across lines needing dedicated pricing and reinsurance.
1–3 yrsBusiness model
French riot cover is tested before a state-backed regime changes who carries civil-unrest losses.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Parametric cover for government moratoria signals a new policy-driven risk for data-centre builds.
1–3 yrsCapital
Proposed extra solvency tests for insurers backing bank risk transfers could raise their capital requirements.
NowCapital
Rising cost of cover for AI company defaults signals concentrated credit exposure for credit insurers.
NowClaims and pricing
A public-private backstop is expanding war reinsurance for Ukraine, keeping war-exposed property insurable.
NowClaims and pricing
Government travel warnings after Houthi strikes could leave travellers uncovered where policies exclude advice-linked claims.
