RISK RADAR · THEME
War and political violence with an insurance consequence, sanctions, war and cyber-war exclusions, trade wars and tariffs driving claims costs, shipping chokepoints, supply-chain disruption, sovereign and expropriation risk.
ARGUS’S READING Steady · Hormuz uncertainty continues to affect marine and energy exposures; Coface's GCC downgrades predate this review period.
AI and technologyClimate and natureGeopolitics, conflict and tradeCyberEnergy and the transitionSocial and legalFinancial and macroHealth, pandemics and longevityNatural resources and foodUnder the radar
Risk & Catastrophe · In context
Background: in its October risk review, published on 13 October, trade credit insurer Coface downgraded Saudi Arabia from A3 to A4, the UAE from A2 to A3 and Qatar from A3 to A4. It expects economic activity to contract across the GCC in 2026. It also downgraded the agri-food sector in the UAE and Saudi Arabia because of their reliance on food imports.
NowClaims and pricing
Lower vessel time in war-listed areas shifts marine war-risk exposure, which hull and cargo underwriters must reprice.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Senate passage of long-term TRIA reauthorization sustains the federal terrorism backstop that insurers rely on.
NowClaims and pricing
Shifting US tariffs on Canada keep trade credit exposures uncertain for insurers.
NowClaims and pricing
Hormuz attacks drive marine war total losses, straining war-risk underwriters' capacity and pricing.
NowClaims and pricing
War-risk cover added to home policies, sometimes unconsented, creates silent war exposure in property books.
1–3 yrsBusiness model
Opening China's market to foreign brokers shifts distribution and competition for insurers and intermediaries.
NowClaims and pricing
Gulf sovereign downgrades by a credit insurer signal tighter trade-credit underwriting on Saudi, UAE and Qatar exposures.
NowClaims and pricing
GPS spoofing raises navigation risk for shipping in the Middle East, a marine exposure to price.
NowClaims and pricing
Lasting Strait of Hormuz uncertainty keeps chokepoint transit risk and marine war cover in flux for shipping and energy.
1–3 yrsCapital
A TRIA extension with a $10M trigger would shift more terrorism losses onto insurers, raising retained exposure.
NowClaims and pricing
Houthi warning on Saudi airspace signals new war-risk exposure for aviation insurers.
NowBusiness model
State backstop for oil and LNG shipping cover shows the private marine market may not absorb these risks alone.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
Non-life insurers in South Africa now treat geopolitical risk as a core strategic issue, not a side concern.
NowClaims and pricing
Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport raise war-risk exposure for aviation insurers, who must reprice Middle East aircraft cover.
NowClaims and pricing
Hormuz shipping crisis threatens marine war-risk pricing for tanker and cargo cover.
NowClaims and pricing
Record shipping insurance rates as Hormuz traffic collapses signal sharply higher war-risk pricing for shipping.
NowClaims and pricing
Projectile strikes in Hormuz leave tanker war-risk quotes at 6–10% of hull value.
NowClaims and pricing
Projectile strikes in Hormuz drive marine war losses and tanker war premiums of 6% to 10% of hull value.
NowClaims and pricing
Strikes on shipping in Hormuz raise war and marine exposure at a key chokepoint for marine insurers.
