RISK RADAR · THEME
Financial and macro
Interest rates, inflation and claims inflation, recession, private credit and asset risk at insurers, capital and solvency shocks, rating and liquidity contagion, currency and sovereign debt.
ARGUS’S READING Rising · Moody's reports US life insurers' AI-linked holdings grew 24% in six months, with total exposure potentially understated.
AI and technologyClimate and natureGeopolitics, conflict and tradeCyberEnergy and the transitionSocial and legalFinancial and macroHealth, pandemics and longevityNatural resources and foodUnder the radar
1–3 yrsBusiness model
EU Officials Propose Guardrails for Insurance Risk Transfer Boom ↗
EU risk-transfer guardrails could reshape reinsurance and ILS business models as capital markets grow.
NowClaims and pricing
Report: Auto Insurance Total Loss Frequency Climbs, More Drivers Pay Repairs ↗
Rising total-loss share shows repair-cost inflation pushing motor loss costs higher.
NowCapital
Walter’s Insurers Skirted Capital Rules With ‘Rolling’ Loophole ↗
Reported capital-rule workaround at PE-linked insurers raises questions about solvency quality.
1–3 yrsBusiness model
NIA warns insurers after N1.08tn recapitalisation exercise ↗
Nigeria's large recapitalisation drive forces the whole insurance market to rebuild its capital base, reshaping who can keep writing.
1–3 yrsBusiness model
Lloyd's sets rules for broker-originated reinsurance structures, capping them at 10% of a broker's treaty portfolio
Lloyd's caps broker-originated reinsurance structures and bars broker ownership, reshaping how outside capital reaches reinsurance from 2027.
1–3 yrsBusiness model
Banks weigh income impact of Irdai's proposed insurance commission caps ↗
Proposed commission caps would change how insurers and their bank distribution partners earn income in India.
NowCapital
Munich Re says traditional reinsurance capital is almost four times alternative capital
Munich Re says abundant traditional capital and benign loss years invite complacency, a capacity signal for property reinsurers.
1–3 yrsClaims and pricing
J.P. Morgan expects property catastrophe reinsurance rates to fall 10-20% at 1 January, less than in previous years
Casualty pricing is lagging claims cost growth, so casualty margins are expected to weaken.
NowClaims and pricing
Allianz Commercial: average business interruption claim now exceeds €850,000, about 70% more than the property damage
Business interruption claims now average over €850,000 and are growing fast, about 70% above related property damage.
1–3 yrsCapital
EIOPA tells EU supervisors how to scrutinise private equity-backed insurers
Supervisors are scrutinising private equity ownership, private credit and reinsurance links that affect insurers' asset and capital risk.
1–3 yrsCapital
Saudi Arabia sets 1 January 2027 start for risk-based capital
A risk-based capital regime from 2027 changes how Saudi insurers measure solvency, with dual calculations required during 2026.